According to @MilkRoadDaily, Bitcoin (BTC) is down over 5% month-to-date in October 2025, source: @MilkRoadDaily. This puts BTC on track for the first negative October in seven years, with Uptober described as on life support, source: @MilkRoadDaily.

According to the source, BTC is down 6% month-to-date in October with 12 days remaining, putting a premium on flow- and positioning-confirmation over directional guesses for the rest of the month (source: public X post dated Oct 18, 2025). Monitor net spot Bitcoin ETF inflows/outflows each US session; sustained net inflows tend to support intraday bid and reduce drawdown persistence, while net outflows often coincide with weaker price action (source: Farside Investors US spot Bitcoin ETF flow tracker; source: Bloomberg ETF flow summaries). Track perpetual funding rates and basis alongside open interest; persistent negative funding with rising open interest indicates aggressive short buildup and raises short-squeeze risk if flows flip, favoring fade-the-break tactics near obvious lows (source: Coinalyze funding and open interest data; source: Glassnode futures and derivatives metrics). Watch options open interest concentration at round-number strikes into weekly and month-end expiries; heavy call gamma above spot can cap rallies, while put gamma clusters below spot can accelerate selloffs if breached (source: Deribit options OI and expiries; source: Laevitas options gamma analytics). Frame risk using the 100–200 day moving averages and the monthly open/close as dynamic support/resistance; violations often precede liquidity grabs before mean reversion in range-bound environments (source: TradingView BTCUSD moving averages; source: CMT Association technical analysis references).

According to @bobbyong, the widely hyped Uptober narrative has instead become Rektober, indicating October delivered losses rather than gains for crypto traders, source: @bobbyong on X, Oct 12, 2025. He adds that the time to sell was when everyone was promoting Uptober, underscoring a contrarian signal relevant to positioning and risk control this month, source: @bobbyong on X, Oct 12, 2025.

According to @business, Bitcoin has historically outperformed in October, earning the nickname Uptober, a seasonality pattern closely watched by traders for timing entries and risk management (source: @business). CoinGlass’s monthly return dashboard shows October is among BTC’s strongest months since 2013, with a majority of Octobers closing in the green, underscoring the month’s positive hit rate for trend-following strategies (source: CoinGlass). Bloomberg also reports that BTC rose to a record on Oct 5, 2025, aligning recent price momentum with the established October seasonality backdrop traders monitor (source: Bloomberg).

According to @CNBC, Bitcoin could see strong gains as 'Uptober' begins, signaling a potentially bullish start to October for BTC price action; source: CNBC.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, Uptober has finished up in 10 of 14 instances since 2010, reflecting a 71.4 percent historical hit rate for October performance, source: X post by @Andre_Dragosch on Oct 1, 2025 https://twitter.com/Andre_Dragosch/status/1973401232988328302. This statistic indicates 10 up Octobers and 4 down Octobers over the cited period, source: @Andre_Dragosch on X https://twitter.com/Andre_Dragosch/status/1973401232988328302.